Between July and September 2026, 20% fewer smartphones were shipped worldwide than in the same period of 2025. According to preliminary estimates from Counterpoint Research, it is the worst third quarter since 2012. The main cause is the rising cost of DRAM and NAND memory, which manufacturers are passing on to their price lists: average retail prices have gone up by about 20% since the start of the year.
Winners and losers
Shipments are the phones that manufacturers deliver to sales channels, not the ones customers actually buy. The figure therefore measures how much the brands are producing and distributing, and it says a lot about each one’s strategy.
- Samsung stays in first place with 23% of the market. Its shipments fall by only 3%, the strongest gain in share among the big brands. Counterpoint points to the high end and to demand for the Galaxy Z Fold8.
- Apple reaches 22%, its first time above 20% in a third quarter. Even so, the number of iPhones shipped fell, partly because there was no standard iPhone 18 in September, and fewer units reached the shops than at the launch of the iPhone 17. The iPhone 18 Pro, on the other hand, got off to a better start than the previous Pro, especially in China and India.
- Xiaomi slips to 10%, with shipments down by more than 30%: it has cut back on budget models and on its presence in some overseas markets, while raising average prices.
- OPPO, which also includes OnePlus and realme, falls by more than 20% and holds 9%. It is shifting supply towards the most profitable markets.
- vivo loses more than 20% and holds 8%. It is concentrating on India and China, where price rises have pushed entry-level models out of the best-selling price bands.
In China, according to IDC as cited by Reuters, Apple’s deliveries fell by 4.3% against 15.4% for the country as a whole. The Chinese total is 57.9 million units, the sixth consecutive quarter of decline.
What it means for buyers
Counterpoint analyst Shilpi Jain describes it as the second quarter in a row hit squarely by the memory crisis. Demand at the top end is holding up better, while budget phones are the hardest hit: higher list prices and fewer components available.
Counterpoint has not published dedicated figures for Europe, so we cannot say by how much prices are rising in Italy or Switzerland. The direction, though, is clear: manufacturers are going for margin over volume, narrowing their ranges and cutting production. For now, no significant recovery in volumes is expected until component costs and supply improve.
What we think
The figures describe a market that is splitting in two. Samsung and Apple, strong at the high end, absorb the memory price rises better because their customers are less price-sensitive. Brands that lived on models under 300 euros, such as Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo, are forced to choose between thinner margins and higher prices.
For anyone who needs to change phone, the budget models we have seen in recent months may not return to their earlier prices any time soon. If your smartphone still works well, waiting a few months makes little sense as a way of saving money; if you do need a new one, it is worth comparing offers carefully, refurbished ones included, and not taking a price drop for granted. If you are looking for a good compromise at the high end, you will find a starting point in our guide to the best flagship smartphones.
One limitation of the data should be kept in mind: these are preliminary estimates from a single research firm, and IDC and other analysts will publish their own numbers in the coming weeks.
Written by the SpazioiTech newsroom with the help of AI tools, from facts verified across at least two independent outlets, and checked before publication. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
Translated from the Italian original. Read in Italian
